“Demographic winter” is a characteristic of the demographic situation in Foreign Europe. Today it is extremely unfavorable. This region has a very low birth rate and natural population growth: there is a rapid “aging” of Europe, the average age of the region’s residents is from 50 to 70 years.
Birth and fertility rates
The region's birth rate is half that of the rest of the world: just 10 children per 1,000 adults. Fertility or fecundity levels are also not high. In general, women give birth to 1 child per reproductive period. There are very few large families in Europe. At such rates, reproduction Foreign Europe in terms of population is not provided.
The reasons for such a low birth rate should be sought in:
- increasing average life expectancy - women in Europe give birth after 35 - 40 years;
- increasing the “price of a child” - the costs of children in Europe are very high and young families often simply cannot afford to have a child;
- increasing the number of divorces and strengthening the process of women's emancipation.
The lowest levels of birth and fertility were observed in such countries of Foreign Europe as the Czech Republic, Italy, Germany, Austria: 8 children per 100 adults. The general demographic situation here is very difficult, and the economic problems associated with it are solved through labor migration. The largest number of labor migrants was recorded in 2017 in Germany.
Rice. 1. Map of population distribution of Foreign Europe (by country)
Mortality rate
The mortality rate in foreign European countries is difficult to determine. He is neither tall nor short. On average, 10 people per 1000. The reasons for this situation should be sought in:
- increase in average life expectancy;
- expensive medicine;
- the spread of alcoholism and drug addiction.
In Foreign Europe, as in many other countries of the world, the mortality rate among men is higher than among women.
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Reproduction level
The reproduction level of the population of Foreign Europe is extremely low. In some countries, such as Denmark, Switzerland, Poland, it is “narrowed”.
In others, such as Spain, Greece, Belgium, Sweden, it is “zero”, that is, even natural replacement of generations is not ensured. There are also countries with negative natural population growth:
- Austria;
- Bulgaria;
- Hungary;
- Italy;
- Latvia;
- Lithuania;
- Romania;
- Croatia;
- Czech Republic;
- Estonia.
We can say that these countries have already entered a period of depopulation, in which there is a steady decline in population.
Only a number of countries provide real population growth in foreign Europe. Among them: Albania, Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The average growth in Foreign Europe can be calculated using the formula: 13(P) – 9(C) = 4 (EP), where EP is the natural increase (coefficient), P is the birth rate (the number of people born per 1000 inhabitants, coefficient), C is mortality (number of deaths per 1000 inhabitants, coefficient).
Type of reproduction
The birth rate, death rate and reproduction level indicate that the first type of reproduction has formed in Foreign Europe, which is characterized by:
- low birth rates;
- average mortality rates;
- "aging" of the population.
Demographic policy
The peculiarities of the demographic situation forced leaders and public figures to pursue certain demographic policies aimed at
- encouraging the creation of young families;
- encouraging the birth of two or more children in families;
- ban on abortion and much more.
It cannot be said that the measures led to an improvement in the situation. For example, in Germany, the age of marriage has increased to 28 and 30 years for women and men, respectively, large families Northern European countries do not feel protected due to juvenile justice; so-called abortion tourism is flourishing in countries such as Romania, Serbia, and Estonia.
Rice. 2. European caricature of the demographic situation in the region
Demographic Projections
Demographic forecasts for countries of Foreign Europe are disappointing:
- until 2025, the “aging” of the population will continue: with an average life expectancy of up to 85 years, the total number of elderly people of retirement age will reach 114 million;
- by 2025, only 14 countries will experience slight population growth, 4 will remain at the same level, and 16 will experience negative growth; in Italy, for example, the population will decrease by 7.2 million, and in Germany by 3.9.
In such conditions, states will have to develop new labor rules and create new social legislation that would make it possible to provide for the entire population disabled by age.
Rice. 3. Decline in European population (forecast by country, percentage)
What have we learned?
The demographic situation in the countries of Foreign Europe is very difficult. There is a noticeable “aging” of the population and a gradual decline in its numbers. States are trying to solve problems through special demographic policies, but sociologists' forecasts still remain disappointing.
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Advances in medicine, increased comfort of work and life, intensification and growth of productivity agriculture largely contributed to the increase in human life expectancy and, as a result, the growth of the world's population.
Simultaneously with the increase in life expectancy in a number of regions of the world, the birth rate continued to remain at a high level, and in some of them amounted to 40 people per 1000 people per year or more. High levels of population growth are typical for countries in Africa, Central America, the Near and Middle East, Southeast Asia, India, and China. Statistical data on the Earth's population and its trends are shown in the table and graph.
Global population growth
Options for forecasting changes in the world population Option 
Probable change in population by region (share, %)
| Region | 1950 | 2025 |
| Europe and North America | 32 | 16 |
| Asia | 53 | 57 |
| Africa | 9 | 18 |
| Latin America | 6 | 9 |
There are several forecasts for further changes in the world's population, which UN experts consider possible.
According to option I (unsustainable development) by the end of the 21st century. the population may grow to 28-30 billion people. Under these conditions, the Earth will no longer be able (with current state technologies) to provide the population with sufficient food and basic necessities. From a certain period, famine, mass diseases, habitat degradation will begin and, as a result, a sharp decrease in population and destruction of the human community. Already today, in environmentally disadvantaged regions, there is a connection between the deterioration of the environment and a reduction in life expectancy and an increase in infant mortality.
According to the second option, it is assumed that if by 2035 the average number of children per family drops to approximately two, then by the end of the 21st century the population will stabilize at just over 10 billion. If the average number of children per family (about 2) is not reached until 2055, then the population will reach a billion before stabilizing. If the level of two children per family is reached earlier, by 2015, the population will stabilize at around 8 billion.
Will the Earth be able to feed so many people? Theoretically, with rational management, the planet could satisfy the basic needs of a population twice its current size. But this is only theoretical. The gap between wealth and poverty is becoming deeper. At least 20% of the world's population lives in extremely precarious conditions.
Meanwhile, as demographers have calculated, in 40 years the population of China alone will be about one and a half billion people. At the same time, China today has the lowest population growth rates among developing countries - less than one percent. Without public policy If the birth rate were to decline, the number of Chinese would already exceed one and a half billion. About 95 percent of the world's population is now born in developing countries. IN developed countries In the rest of the world, population growth will either stop or slow down significantly. In the USA, for example, the number of residents increases only due to the presence of immigrants in the country - mostly people from Latin America, Asia and Africa. The well-being of the population, unfortunately, is inversely proportional to the ability to bear children, i.e. Poverty multiplies itself because it is among the poorest segments of the population that the birth rate is highest.
Population of countries of the world
| № | Country | Population (thousand people, 2002) | Population forecast (thousand people, according to UN data) |
|
| 2025 | 2050 |
|||
| 1 | China | 1 273 154 | 1 480 412 | 1 477 730 |
| 2 | India | 1 033 072 | 1 330 449 | 1 528 853 |
| 3 | United States of America | 284 528 | 325 573 | 349318 |
| 4 | Indonesia | 206 138 | 273 442 | 311857 |
| 5 | Brazil | 171 851 | 217 930 | 244 230 |
| 6 | Pakistan | 145 022 | 263 000 | 345 484 |
| 7 | Russian Federation | 143 954 | 137 933 | 121 256 |
| 8 | Japan | 126 281 | 121 150 | 104 921 |
| 9 | Bangladesh | 124 774 | 178 751 | 212 495 |
| 10 | Nigeria | 106 409 | 183 041 | 244 311 |
One of the most common dangers is HIV-
infection...
The number of deaths from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic has exceeded 16 million people, approximately 3 million in each of the last 3 years. 4 million deaths are children under 15 years of age. 11 million children under the age of 15 have lost their mothers, and many of them their fathers, as a result of the death of their parents from AIDS.
About half of people become infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) before age 25, and most usually do not live past age 35.
As of September 2002, there were 34 million HIV-infected people in the world!
In Russia, the number of HIV-infected (registered) people by October 2000 was 56,000 people, and the increase in their number reaches about 10,000 people/year. ;
The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health Organization (WHO) published a report on the spread of AIDS in the world as of January 2000.
General summary of data on the spread of AIDS by region of the world
| Region | Start epidemics | The total number of people suffering from HIV/AIDS at the end of 1999, thousand people | Incl. infected in 1999, thousand people | Proportion of HIV-infected people among the adult population (15-49 years),% | Proportion of women among HIV-infected adults % | Main routes of transmission of the disease among adults |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | Late 70's - early 80's | 23300 | 3800 | 8,0 | 55 | Hetero |
| North Africa and Middle East | Late 80s | 220 | 19 | 0,13 | 20 | IDU Hetero |
| South and Southeast Asia | Late 80s | 6000 | 1300 | 0,69 | 30 | Hetero |
| East Asia and Pacific | Late 80s | 530 | 120 | 0,068 | 15 | IDU, Hetero, MSM |
| Latin America | Late 70's - early 80's | 1300 | 150 | 0,57 | 20 | MSM, IDU, Hetero |
| Caribbean pool | Late 70's - early 80's | 360 | 57 | 1,96 | 35 | Hetero, M.S.M. |
| Eastern Europe and Central Asia | Early 90s | 360 | 95 | 0,14 | 20 | IDU, MSM |
| Western Europe | Late 70's - early 80's | 520 | 30 | 0,25 | 20 | MSM, IDU |
| Northern America | Late 80s | 920 | 0,56 | 44 | 20 | MSM, IDU, Hetero |
| Australia and New Zealand | Late 80s | 12 | 0.5 | 0,10 | 10 | IDU, MSM |
Note:
Hetero - heterosexual sexual intercourse;
MSM - male homosexual sexual intercourse; IDU - injection of drugs.
Approximately 95% of all people living with HIV live in developing countries, but the number is growing in other regions of the world.
In 1999, the highest rates of HIV infection were recorded in the independent states of the former Soviet Union. In three last year the number of HIV-infected people here has doubled.
The increase was especially large in Russia and Ukraine. The HIV epidemic among drug users in Ukraine began earlier than in Russia, and here the number of infected people whose HIV infection develops into the AIDS stage is rapidly growing. According to the European AIDS Epidemiological Monitoring Center, about 90% of all AIDS cases registered over the past two years throughout Eastern Europe, is in Ukraine. (Source: UNAIDS/WHO. Evolution of the AIDS epidemic: status as of December 1999)
Demographic analytics for Russia.
Population of Russia for the period 1897-2002 
State Committee Russian Federation according to statistics, published a forecast of the population of Russia until 2016.
Estimated population of the Russian Federation until 2016. (Statistical Bulletin). Moscow. State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics. 1999
Gads
Russia population forecast
All three forecast options (medium, low and high) predict a further decline in the Russian population. It is expected that by the beginning of 2016 it will be, depending on the option, from 128.4, 134 or 143.7 million people. According to the average option, the population of 81 out of 89 federal subjects will decrease by 2016 (Fig. 1). Exceptions are Moscow, the Republic of Kalmykia, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kabardino-Balkarian Republics, the Altai Republic, Ust-Ordynsky Buryat and Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug.
The aging of Russia's population will continue.
Population younger and older than working age per 100 people of working age 
Although the working age population will increase until 2006, then it will begin to decline rapidly. Low birth rates and increased life expectancy will lead to an increase in the proportion of older people in the population structure and a decrease in the proportion of children. As a result, the total burden on the working-age population will first decrease to 57 per 100 people of working age in 2007, and then rise again to approximately the current level.
Statistical data reflect the extremely poor state of health of the population, and the excess of mortality over birth rate in most regions of the country indicates the development of the depopulation process. According to the forecast of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, for the period 1999-2016. The country's population will decrease by 11.5 million people. As a result of natural decline and migration outflow, the population of the West Siberian and East Siberian economic regions will decrease by 2.2 million people over this period. Life expectancy by 2016 will be 69.8 years in the West Siberian economic region, 66.5 years in the East Siberian economic region, and 69.6 years on average in Russia.
The process of depopulation of the population of the Russian Federation continued in 1999 on a more alarming scale. The permanent population of Russia as of January 1, 2000 amounted to 145,559.2 thousand people, or 768.4 thousand people (0.5%) less than in the previous year, and over the past 10 years has decreased by more than 2 ,1 million people and amounted to 98.6% of the 1990 level.
The excess of the number of deaths over the number of births in 1999 was 929.6 thousand people, i.e. The rate of natural population decline in the Russian Federation was 6.4 per 1000 population and increased by 4.2 times compared to 1992.
Natural population growth in 1999 remained in only seven regions of the Russian Federation; in 1990 there were 66 such regions. High rates of natural population decline were recorded in Ivanovo, Novgorod, Pskov, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tver, Tula, Yaroslavl regions.
Declining living standards and environmental problems have a negative impact on the incidence of illness in the population, especially children. As a result of the restructuring of the healthcare system in the country, the majority of paramedic and outpatient stations were closed and the number of treatment and preventive institutions was reduced by 5.2%, which significantly complicated the provision of medical care to the rural population. Health problems have become particularly acute in areas inhabited by small indigenous peoples of the North who lead a nomadic lifestyle (Taimyr, Evenki and Nenets Autonomous Okrugs. Health authorities are concerned about the emergence of such rare diseases in the past as hepatitis A and B, diphtheria. For example, the incidence of diphtheria, previously reduced in Russia to isolated cases, since the beginning of the 90s it has increased unprecedentedly (100 thousand cases, more than 5 thousand deaths). The reasons for the increase in the incidence of diphtheria are low vaccination coverage, deterioration in the quality of life and condition of environment. Failures in the population vaccination system are one of the reasons for the increase in hepatitis incidence.
According to the Endocrinological Research Center of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, another national problem is the fight against iodine deficiency among the country's population. Iodine deficiency entails a number of medical consequences, such as diffuse goiter, thyroid hyperplasia and other intractable diseases that affect a person’s intellectual abilities.
Iodine deficiency is not only a manifestation of environmental consequences Chernobyl accident, as previously thought. It has been established that in middle lane In Russia, the frequency of goiter corresponds to mild and moderate degrees of endemicity, and in Siberia and in Far East- medium and heavy. Iodine deficiency is caused by an unfavorable human environment and the consumption of foods that have lost essential microelements for the body (including iodine) as a result of storage and cooking.
(Given the seriousness of this problem, the Government of the Russian Federation adopted Resolution No. 1119 of October 5, 1999 “On measures to prevent diseases associated with iodine deficiency.” Additions to the plan of activities planned at the first stage of implementation of the Concept of State Policy in the field of healthy eating population of the Russian Federation for the period until 2005.)
It should be noted, however, that federal target programs in the field of environmental protection and public health are insufficiently funded. In difficult economic conditions, health authorities solve the most important task - protecting the population from the effects of hazardous chemical, physical and biological factors in the human environment.
Europe can be described as a subcontinent occupying the eastern peninsula of the continent of Eurasia. The border between Europe and Asia runs along Ural mountains, the Caspian and Black Seas, and the Caucasus Mountains, according to the most common version.
Europe is the second smallest continent in the world by area (the total area of Europe is 10.18 million sq. km., i.e. 2% of the total surface area of the Earth, or 6% of the total land area of the Earth), following after Australia . There are over fifty countries and dependent territories in Europe. The largest country in Europe by area, entirely located on the territory of Europe, is Ukraine (Russia is only partially located in Europe, most of Russia is located in Asia), and the smallest is the Vatican.
Population of Europe
Europe is the world's third most populous continent (following Asia and Africa). The estimated population of Europe in 2016 is 741.2 million people, i.e. about 11% of the total population of the planet. The population growth rate in Europe is currently 0.21% per year. Most European countries are experiencing a declining and rapidly aging population.
The population of Europe in comparison with the population of other continents
As already written, Europe is the second smallest continent in the world, after Australia, and the third most populous, after Asia and Africa. The population density in Europe is 73 people/sq.km., so Europe is also the second continent in the world in terms of population density (Asia takes first place with 87 people/sq.km.).
Europe leads other continents in the number of countries with declining and aging populations, but many developed countries experience this problem at some point.
Population growth in European countries
According to forecasts, by 2050 the population of Europe will decrease by 30 million people, and the number of people aged 80 and above will increase significantly by this time. Majority European countries faced with the problem of an aging population, as well as a low fertility rate (below replacement level). The population of the European Union is estimated to peak in 2040, with the largest population declines in Romania and Germany (-19%), Bulgaria (-27%), Latvia (-26%), and Lithuania (-20%).
Population of European countries
Most large country In terms of population, Russia is far ahead of Europe (with a population of 144 million people), but for the most part Russia is geographically located in Asia, so the largest country in Europe in terms of population, which is entirely located in Europe, is Germany.
The smallest country in Europe in terms of population is the Vatican.
The table below shows all independent countries Europe, and the population of each country is given.
| Place | Country | Population |
| 1 | Germany | 81 147 265 |
| 2 | France | 65 951 611 |
| 3 | United Kingdom | 63 395 574 |
| 4 | Italy | 61 482 297 |
| 5 | Spain | 47 370 524 |
| 6 | Ukraine | 44 573 205 |
| 7 | Poland | 38 383 809 |
| 8 | Romania | 21 790 479 |
| 9 | Netherlands | 16 805 037 |
| 10 | Portugal | 10 799 270 |
| 11 | Greece | 10 772 967 |
| 12 | Belgium | 10 444 268 |
| 13 | Czech Republic | 10 162 921 |
| 14 | Hungary | 9 939 470 |
| 15 | Belarus | 9 625 888 |
| 16 | Sweden | 9 119 423 |
| 17 | Austria | 8 221 646 |
| 18 | Switzerland | 7 996 026 |
| 19 | Serbia | 7 243 007 |
| 20 | Bulgaria | 6 981 642 |
| 21 | Denmark | 5 556 452 |
| 22 | Slovakia | 5 488 339 |
| 23 | Finland | 5 266 114 |
| 24 | Ireland | 4 775 982 |
| 25 | Norway | 4 722 701 |
| 26 | Croatia | 4 475 611 |
| 27 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 875 723 |
| 28 | Moldova | 3 619 925 |
| 29 | Lithuania | 3 515 858 |
| 30 | Albania | 3 011 405 |
| 31 | Latvia | 2 178 443 |
| 32 |
